Presidential

June 30 - No Apparent Winner, Trump Favored

Explanation

Above is the most recent 2024 U.S. Presidential Election prediction from The Matthews Review. On the map above, states filled in with the darkest shades of either red or blue are nearly guarantees to be carried by the candidate of the corresponding color. The lighter shades represent states that could go either way and Pennsylvania, the sole state not shaded, is seen by The Matthews Report to be a complete toss up with each candidate having an equal chance of carrying the commonwealth.

Analysis

As of this map, it seems like Fmr. Pres. Trump will perform better this election than he did in 2020, as he is expected to regain Arizona and Georgia, both states he won in 2016 but lost to Pres. Biden in 2020. It is also expected that Trump will win Nevada by a very slim margin, a state that has voted Democratic in presidential elections since 2008. Assuming all safe, likely, and lean (the three darkest shades) states are called correctly, the election will come down to Nevada, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Without these states, Biden will have 241 electoral votes to Trump’s 262. With 270 votes needed to win, Nevada becomes irrelevant as its 6 votes are not enough for either candidate to win (or even affect what other states are needed). Because of this, the election would boil down to just Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. In this scenario, Biden would need to carry both states to win with exactly 270 electoral votes as opposed to Trump who would only need to win one of the states. For this reason, it makes most sense for Biden to focus on the Rust Belt so as to make sure he retains Michigan while also making headway in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. For Trump, he should be focusing his efforts on the Sun Belt as in order for this favorable scenario to play out, he will need to flip Arizona and Georgia.